Anuba
Jun 7, 07:35 AM
My husband has been an AT&T user for over a decade. He never experienced dropped calls until we started dating and he was talking to me (I'm on an iPhone, he is not).
Right, and during that decade there were no iPhones overloading the networks. Barely anyone used the data traffic capacity back then. With the iPhone, usage of the onboard internet browser on smartphones went up from 15% to 85%. Steve has unleashed hell and now he's poured gasoline on the whole thing by introducing the 3G iPad.
What you have now is a situation with millions of people overloading the network by utilizing their wireless devices in ways the networks won't be able to handle for at least another 5 years, and it's only going to get worse. Netbooks, iPhones, iPads, Androids... sorry, guess we'll have to discontinue voice traffic services, please go back to your land phone.
"Explosion of wireless devices causing data traffic jam" (http://www.physorg.com/news185457426.html)
It's not only a capacity problem, it's also a spectrum problem. AT&T could put up a dozen cell towers in a ring around your house, it ain't gonna do much about the dropped calls. The data traffic jamming is the reason for dropped calls. Voice and data are different services but it's the same network infrastructure equipment handling both services. This equipment uses dozens of different technologies to maximize capacity. Adaptive Multi Rate codecs, Cell Load Sharing, Dynamic Half-Rate Allocation, Frequency Hopping, Intra Cell Handover, DTX Discontinuous Transmission, Fractional Load Planning, Multiple Re-use Pattern... all these technologies are band-aids that milk more capacity out of the network. Each time one of these technologies kicks in during a call, there's a slight risk of the call being dropped, and this risk increases ten fold if the infrastructure is so busy with data traffic it really doesn't have the resources to manage voice traffic properly. As long as the carriers don't get more spectrum, they're stuck in this situation.
"Currently, wireless companies have 534 megahertz of spectrum allotted to them, with an additional 50 megahertz in the pipeline. The industry says it needs at least 800 megahertz more within six years to accommodate demand.
"Spectrum for us is our highway," said Christopher Guttman-McCabe, vice president of regulatory affairs for CTIA-The Wireless Association, a trade group. "But the volume of traffic is picking up. Without more lanes, we'll have more traffic and more congestion," which will result in slower service."
So who are the real culprits in this mess? Well, 1) naive carriers who introduced services the networks weren't built for (they have the technology but not the capacity for this massive volume), and 2) these customers:
"Limited spectrum is only part of the problem, experts say, though an important part. Often, slow cell service is caused by a handful of bandwidth hogs -- watching videos on their iPhones, for example -- in a small area between cell phone towers.
"You have a few users clogging up capacity -- that is not something which can be solved just by providing more spectrum," said Aditya Kaul, director of mobile networks for ABI Research, a technology research firm."
Wanna get rid of dropped calls before 2015? Find the bandwidth hogs in your neighborhood and tell them if they don't stop using 3G like it was regular broadband, you will shoot them. Tell them it's because of them that everyone else who had an unlimited plan will soon have a capped plan, and if they don't stop, everyone will soon be on a plan where they pay by the megabyte.
Right, and during that decade there were no iPhones overloading the networks. Barely anyone used the data traffic capacity back then. With the iPhone, usage of the onboard internet browser on smartphones went up from 15% to 85%. Steve has unleashed hell and now he's poured gasoline on the whole thing by introducing the 3G iPad.
What you have now is a situation with millions of people overloading the network by utilizing their wireless devices in ways the networks won't be able to handle for at least another 5 years, and it's only going to get worse. Netbooks, iPhones, iPads, Androids... sorry, guess we'll have to discontinue voice traffic services, please go back to your land phone.
"Explosion of wireless devices causing data traffic jam" (http://www.physorg.com/news185457426.html)
It's not only a capacity problem, it's also a spectrum problem. AT&T could put up a dozen cell towers in a ring around your house, it ain't gonna do much about the dropped calls. The data traffic jamming is the reason for dropped calls. Voice and data are different services but it's the same network infrastructure equipment handling both services. This equipment uses dozens of different technologies to maximize capacity. Adaptive Multi Rate codecs, Cell Load Sharing, Dynamic Half-Rate Allocation, Frequency Hopping, Intra Cell Handover, DTX Discontinuous Transmission, Fractional Load Planning, Multiple Re-use Pattern... all these technologies are band-aids that milk more capacity out of the network. Each time one of these technologies kicks in during a call, there's a slight risk of the call being dropped, and this risk increases ten fold if the infrastructure is so busy with data traffic it really doesn't have the resources to manage voice traffic properly. As long as the carriers don't get more spectrum, they're stuck in this situation.
"Currently, wireless companies have 534 megahertz of spectrum allotted to them, with an additional 50 megahertz in the pipeline. The industry says it needs at least 800 megahertz more within six years to accommodate demand.
"Spectrum for us is our highway," said Christopher Guttman-McCabe, vice president of regulatory affairs for CTIA-The Wireless Association, a trade group. "But the volume of traffic is picking up. Without more lanes, we'll have more traffic and more congestion," which will result in slower service."
So who are the real culprits in this mess? Well, 1) naive carriers who introduced services the networks weren't built for (they have the technology but not the capacity for this massive volume), and 2) these customers:
"Limited spectrum is only part of the problem, experts say, though an important part. Often, slow cell service is caused by a handful of bandwidth hogs -- watching videos on their iPhones, for example -- in a small area between cell phone towers.
"You have a few users clogging up capacity -- that is not something which can be solved just by providing more spectrum," said Aditya Kaul, director of mobile networks for ABI Research, a technology research firm."
Wanna get rid of dropped calls before 2015? Find the bandwidth hogs in your neighborhood and tell them if they don't stop using 3G like it was regular broadband, you will shoot them. Tell them it's because of them that everyone else who had an unlimited plan will soon have a capped plan, and if they don't stop, everyone will soon be on a plan where they pay by the megabyte.
javajedi
Oct 11, 12:56 PM
Originally posted by Backtothemac
And I care why? It doesn't matter how fast you can surf on your PC. I can get around fast enough on my Mac. People who say Mac's are too slow are the same people that never take the time to watch a sunset or spend a day with their kid.
They are fast enough. They do what they are supposed to do the way they are supposed to do it.
The don't crash, don't get viruses, and don't look like something from the 1980s!
More fallacies...
#1 My PC doesn't crash
#2 It does not get infected with virii
#3 It doesn't look like something from the 1980s
You take a look for yourself
http://homepage.mac.com/kevindecker/PhotoAlbum3.html
Oh and one more thing Back2TheMac: I've noticed now you are signing quite a different tune, before the G4 was supreme... now.. it is slower and... uhh.. doesn't matter?? How convenient.
And I care why? It doesn't matter how fast you can surf on your PC. I can get around fast enough on my Mac. People who say Mac's are too slow are the same people that never take the time to watch a sunset or spend a day with their kid.
They are fast enough. They do what they are supposed to do the way they are supposed to do it.
The don't crash, don't get viruses, and don't look like something from the 1980s!
More fallacies...
#1 My PC doesn't crash
#2 It does not get infected with virii
#3 It doesn't look like something from the 1980s
You take a look for yourself
http://homepage.mac.com/kevindecker/PhotoAlbum3.html
Oh and one more thing Back2TheMac: I've noticed now you are signing quite a different tune, before the G4 was supreme... now.. it is slower and... uhh.. doesn't matter?? How convenient.
deconai
Aug 30, 09:53 AM
A few years ago in college, my Geology professor (he works at NASA developing new energy technologies and teaches during the Summer as a side job) told us that Mother Nature is actually the largest contributor to greenhouse gases through the release of methane attributed to volacones. In fact, one volcano puts out more methane gas than the entire USA. Apparently humans are only responsible for a fraction of a percent of the greenhouse gases found in the natural atmosphere.
Face it, global warming is a buzz phrase quickly falling out of fashion. The temperature changes we are experiencing are part of a cycle, nothing more.
The real problem that humans create is the rapid consumption of the earth's natural resources. We need to remember to recriprocate this consumption with preservation.
Face it, global warming is a buzz phrase quickly falling out of fashion. The temperature changes we are experiencing are part of a cycle, nothing more.
The real problem that humans create is the rapid consumption of the earth's natural resources. We need to remember to recriprocate this consumption with preservation.
ct2k7
Mar 11, 04:43 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698
Looking hairier by the minute. :eek:
**** :eek:
Looking hairier by the minute. :eek:
**** :eek:
Eraserhead
Mar 27, 05:27 PM
What rights do you mean: civil ones, merely legal ones, human ones, moral ones, or any combination of these?
I would presume he means human and legal rights. I think it is fair to say that its a human right to love whom you wish and that any two consenting adults should be able to enter into a legal contract about their future together (AKA marriage).
I would presume he means human and legal rights. I think it is fair to say that its a human right to love whom you wish and that any two consenting adults should be able to enter into a legal contract about their future together (AKA marriage).
LegendKillerUK
Mar 18, 08:47 AM
Here's a newsflash: Just because you put something into a contract doesn't make it legal or make it fair. What if AT&T stipulated that they were allowed to come by your house and give you a wedgie every time you checked your voicemail...? Would you still be screaming about how its "justified" because its written on some lop-sided, legalese-ridden piece of paper?
No, because that is clearly retarded.
No, because that is clearly retarded.
fullstop102
Apr 13, 03:54 AM
Most people here, will tinker with FCP and never actually make feature films or shows. You all have an opinion, but I think that people that actually do this for a living will be very happy with the results.
I edit TV shows and make adverts as part of my job, so I can't wait to get my hands on it, and then after using it for my job for a while, I will be able to tell if it really is worth its weight in gold, but from what I can see 64bit processing, multicore use and all the rest will allow me to do my current daily tasks quicker (like converting/exporting shows from PAL to NTSC for multi format broadcast on an 8 core Mac Pro)
I edit TV shows and make adverts as part of my job, so I can't wait to get my hands on it, and then after using it for my job for a while, I will be able to tell if it really is worth its weight in gold, but from what I can see 64bit processing, multicore use and all the rest will allow me to do my current daily tasks quicker (like converting/exporting shows from PAL to NTSC for multi format broadcast on an 8 core Mac Pro)
Shotglass
Sep 12, 03:28 PM
Could you please provide a link to the coverage? I never heard of this.
zaphon
Apr 20, 11:25 PM
Nokia, Google, Blackberry (yes, screw you, arrogant Basille) etc should just throw in the towel at this point. They ain't catching up, and resistance is futile.
*facepalm* Apple can go around skewing the numbers in their favor however they want (throwing in iPad's, iTouch, etc.), but the fact is both in the US and Worldwide, Android has the largest Smart Phone user base. So why would Google want to throw in the towel?
*facepalm* Apple can go around skewing the numbers in their favor however they want (throwing in iPad's, iTouch, etc.), but the fact is both in the US and Worldwide, Android has the largest Smart Phone user base. So why would Google want to throw in the towel?
PlipPlop
Apr 21, 02:05 AM
In other news Steve Jobs still scared of the pure domination of Android in the smartphone market.
caspersoong
Apr 29, 04:17 AM
Apple should expand their market and get more units here in Southeast Asia.
beg_ne
May 2, 10:44 AM
To the end user it makes no difference. It's fine if you know, but to a novice quickly correcting them on the difference between a virus, a trojan, or whatever else contributes approximately zero percent towards solving the problem.
So what's your solution? Sounds like it's half "LOL Mac fanboiz r stupid" and half "Users are morons so lets keep them uninformed, and complacent on using antivirus software they don't need".
Which would be especially genius advice since this latest malware pretends to be software that will protect their Mac.
I think I like the typical Mac community advice better:
Don't spread FUD about what the actual situation is. Practice safe computing habits like not installing cracked software or special porn codecs. Don't put your administrator password into random app installers that popup. Participate on Mac community sites to stay informed about possible threats.
And finally - Don't install antivirus/malware software for no reason because most of them are **** anyway and will do more bad than good for your Mac.
So what's your solution? Sounds like it's half "LOL Mac fanboiz r stupid" and half "Users are morons so lets keep them uninformed, and complacent on using antivirus software they don't need".
Which would be especially genius advice since this latest malware pretends to be software that will protect their Mac.
I think I like the typical Mac community advice better:
Don't spread FUD about what the actual situation is. Practice safe computing habits like not installing cracked software or special porn codecs. Don't put your administrator password into random app installers that popup. Participate on Mac community sites to stay informed about possible threats.
And finally - Don't install antivirus/malware software for no reason because most of them are **** anyway and will do more bad than good for your Mac.
mingoglia
Apr 20, 06:30 PM
It will be interesting 10 years from now to compare the number of viruses that will have occurred on android vs. iOS.
You mean just like unix operating systems have "so many" viruses and it's a completely open source environment? In fact OSX is based on BSD unix. LOL
You mean just like unix operating systems have "so many" viruses and it's a completely open source environment? In fact OSX is based on BSD unix. LOL
UnixMac
Oct 9, 11:31 AM
Well, lets hope that G5 will help the programmer and be less code intensive.
edifyingGerbil
Apr 24, 11:08 AM
Oh, please.
The Islamic World today doesn't have much resemblance to the Islamic World of antiquity. Don't forget that a vast majority of ancient Greek texts would have been lost to the ages if not for Islamic scholars, to say nothing of (relatively) advanced mathematical concepts and a symbol for zero.
No, without pre-Islamic Persian and Arabic sources the renaissance wouldn't have happened.
Arabic numerals actually come from India.
Don't forget it's thought the Caliph Umar ordered the burning of the Library at Alexandria. He's quoted as saying: "�If the books agree with the Qur�an, they are superfluous. If they disagree with it, they are heretical.�
While this may be apocryphal the fact is that Saladin, remember, that great 7th Day Adventist conueror of the Middle-East) used this example as justification to order the burning of many ancient libraries when he reconquered Egypt.
EDIT: whoops, I just double-checked, Saladin was an Islamic conqueror... my bad!
We would all be speaking German I expect.
Why? Or is this another bid for attention and I'm falling for it by giving you the attention you so desperately craved?
The Islamic World today doesn't have much resemblance to the Islamic World of antiquity. Don't forget that a vast majority of ancient Greek texts would have been lost to the ages if not for Islamic scholars, to say nothing of (relatively) advanced mathematical concepts and a symbol for zero.
No, without pre-Islamic Persian and Arabic sources the renaissance wouldn't have happened.
Arabic numerals actually come from India.
Don't forget it's thought the Caliph Umar ordered the burning of the Library at Alexandria. He's quoted as saying: "�If the books agree with the Qur�an, they are superfluous. If they disagree with it, they are heretical.�
While this may be apocryphal the fact is that Saladin, remember, that great 7th Day Adventist conueror of the Middle-East) used this example as justification to order the burning of many ancient libraries when he reconquered Egypt.
EDIT: whoops, I just double-checked, Saladin was an Islamic conqueror... my bad!
We would all be speaking German I expect.
Why? Or is this another bid for attention and I'm falling for it by giving you the attention you so desperately craved?
Rt&Dzine
Apr 27, 06:52 PM
Nope, sorry, no fun "regardless", for others have a dim view of any speculation outside their own pre-conceived notions.
It's no more "fun" than arguing that one knows that God exists or does not.
I was referring to the believers.
It's no more "fun" than arguing that one knows that God exists or does not.
I was referring to the believers.
dante@sisna.com
Sep 12, 07:10 PM
You do recognize that there is not currently an HD system in place from Apple. If HD streaming does work, and I'm certainly not convinced of that at this point, you still have to shoehorn the entire system. The content you purchase from iTunes is not in HD and probably won't be for at least a year, probably 2-3. Therefore, the only HD content will be content that you added on your own, via 3rd party solutions.
So enjoy your patchwork HD system, I'd prefer something more seamless, and supported by Apple.
I am a video editor. All the content I shoot these days is High Def. My client's video is high def. The personal movies I take of my kids are high def. I edit them in either Final Cut Pro HD or iMovie HD. I use a dLink 550 now to stream high def to my 27 LCD monitor.
BlueRay disks are soon to be high def. The iTV will handle High Def via ethernet at least.
High Def Broadcasts exist right now in SLC.
Not sure where you are at with all this but I view a lot of high def content.
So enjoy your patchwork HD system, I'd prefer something more seamless, and supported by Apple.
I am a video editor. All the content I shoot these days is High Def. My client's video is high def. The personal movies I take of my kids are high def. I edit them in either Final Cut Pro HD or iMovie HD. I use a dLink 550 now to stream high def to my 27 LCD monitor.
BlueRay disks are soon to be high def. The iTV will handle High Def via ethernet at least.
High Def Broadcasts exist right now in SLC.
Not sure where you are at with all this but I view a lot of high def content.
faroZ06
May 2, 06:46 PM
Except this is not a virus. Some of you guys need a course on malware terminology. This is a trojan at best. Spyware at worst. Hardly a virus.
Exactly, everyone always talks about Macs being susceptible to viruses and viruses already existing for Macs, then they give the whole "market share" speech. I'm just sitting here virus and malware free laughing :p and most likely will be even if Apple gains market share. I'm a halftime Windows user, and I see soooo many security problems in it, but the MS fanboys blame market share!
I will say that market share DOES up the number of attacks on something, which is why Windows gets attacked so much, but it's also much much easier to attack than Mac OS.
Exactly, everyone always talks about Macs being susceptible to viruses and viruses already existing for Macs, then they give the whole "market share" speech. I'm just sitting here virus and malware free laughing :p and most likely will be even if Apple gains market share. I'm a halftime Windows user, and I see soooo many security problems in it, but the MS fanboys blame market share!
I will say that market share DOES up the number of attacks on something, which is why Windows gets attacked so much, but it's also much much easier to attack than Mac OS.
Dr.Gargoyle
Sep 12, 04:00 PM
I think it was a big mistake not to add a HD/TV-tuner/optical reader... THAT could be a killer. Right now we have an upgraded Airport extreme.
Sticman
Aug 28, 01:13 PM
it's not a sf bay area problem nearly as much as it is a san francisco problem..
Sorry ur SF AT&T service is lousy, but I disagree...AT&T is crappy in many parts of Santa Clara County (San Jose) as well.
And, I think its worse in NYC than in SF, based upon my personal experience.
Sorry ur SF AT&T service is lousy, but I disagree...AT&T is crappy in many parts of Santa Clara County (San Jose) as well.
And, I think its worse in NYC than in SF, based upon my personal experience.
gusapple
Apr 13, 12:28 PM
Well it was rumoured for some time and we all waited with baited breath but was Apple seriously going to end the pro app that started them off to stardom? Sadly yes they have. What genius decides to make a pro app accessible to the masses? We who use FCP have to make money from our business, so we need a little bit of smoke and mirrors to make our business needed, otherwise our clients will just get a 16 year old in off the street, download FCP (sorry imovie Pro or whatever they have decided to call it) and there you go we are out of work!
I can see the business sense for Apple but they have now taken it all away from us who stayed by them for all these years.. Thanks Apple for the kick in the teeth. I am a ''Pro'' app user and have been for well over a decade and will be sad to move over to a new system but alas nothing lasts for ever.
RIP FCP
Born 2000 died 2011
I think that this is counter-intuitive. By a long shot. Why would Apple leave their customer base? They still are including all of their "smoke and mirrors" but with a dumbed down option. All that I can see from it is that file management is FINALLY going to be better than a manual system. And anyways, Apple updated the UI from something that was popular in 2000 to something that looks better for today. Plus, there are lots of people who want to start using Pro apps but don't know how. I think that it is awesome that Apple is creating interest in an industry that will grow rapidly in the next few years.
I can see the business sense for Apple but they have now taken it all away from us who stayed by them for all these years.. Thanks Apple for the kick in the teeth. I am a ''Pro'' app user and have been for well over a decade and will be sad to move over to a new system but alas nothing lasts for ever.
RIP FCP
Born 2000 died 2011
I think that this is counter-intuitive. By a long shot. Why would Apple leave their customer base? They still are including all of their "smoke and mirrors" but with a dumbed down option. All that I can see from it is that file management is FINALLY going to be better than a manual system. And anyways, Apple updated the UI from something that was popular in 2000 to something that looks better for today. Plus, there are lots of people who want to start using Pro apps but don't know how. I think that it is awesome that Apple is creating interest in an industry that will grow rapidly in the next few years.
citizenzen
Apr 27, 08:55 AM
It doesn't make sense for a supreme being to require the employ of man to begin with. There's the real fallacy.
By the same measure, any human endeavor can be said to be inspired by God.
And seeing how many athletes celebrate after making a score, it would seem that might be the case. ;)
Citizenzen, did you read the second pdf document about what happened in Lanciano, Italy?
Yes. What part of it is a result of a scientific study?
By the same measure, any human endeavor can be said to be inspired by God.
And seeing how many athletes celebrate after making a score, it would seem that might be the case. ;)
Citizenzen, did you read the second pdf document about what happened in Lanciano, Italy?
Yes. What part of it is a result of a scientific study?
rahrens
Sep 21, 08:33 AM
the iTV doesn't do HD either. Quoting Bob iger, Disney CEO:
http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2066
Actually, Steve noted that the iTV WILL do HD. It does have an HDMI port out, doesn't it? The issue now is that the ITS doesn't have that content yet. But if YOU have something you've managed to record on your Mac or PC that IS HD, then, by all means, buy the iTV (or whatever they'll call it) and watch your stuff...
http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2066
Actually, Steve noted that the iTV WILL do HD. It does have an HDMI port out, doesn't it? The issue now is that the ITS doesn't have that content yet. But if YOU have something you've managed to record on your Mac or PC that IS HD, then, by all means, buy the iTV (or whatever they'll call it) and watch your stuff...
Dr.Gargoyle
Aug 30, 04:22 AM
Most classic geophysicists & geologists do not believe man is causing global warming.
Absolute nonsense.
Global warming is a natural process and has happened many times over the lifespan of the earth. Sometimes it precedes an ice age sometimes it is ralated to internal changes within the earth core. It has occured in our past and it appears to be occuring now. The real reason for cooling and warming of the Earth are not well understood.
You are here talking about the natural oscillation of temperature (see my previuos post) geophysists often talk about which leads to an occasional ice age now then. There is a natural CO2 variation in the atmosphere which have been studied over extremely long periods by studying ice core samples from e.g. Greenland.
Every single well-founded theoretical model over natural CO2 variation model predicts we are outside the natural variation.
That is a fact.
We also know that CO2 is very potent greenhouse effect.
Thus we also know that the earth is getting warmer due to the increased CO2 level.
The increased CO2 level coincides with the industrilization when man began to burn fossile fuel in a historically unprecedented manner.
Mankind is causing the increased CO2 level. CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
This can of course not the explain the natural variation of temperature, but the fact remains our activities here in earth is causing an increased temperature.
Environmental scientists agree that man is causing global warming. All of their theories are based on models.
All scientific models are just theoretical models and can not be prove themselves. (see Gödel 1931)
But these models are designed trying to prove that man's production of greenhouse gas is the cause and they are way too simplified. We do not have enough information on all of the critical factors affecting climate change to build proper models.
In consequense of your argument and Gödel, it follows that we never can say anything about science. This is the same argument tobacco lobbyists have been using in defence of cigarettes.
Reality may be somewhere in between. However global warming has taken place on Venus and is currently taking place on Mars. Man obviously did not cause thes activities and it may or may not be related to the Earth's current episode of warming.
Again, you are talking about natural variations. But again, not a single theretical model predicts the current CO2 level to be natural variation.
I am not arguing with the idea of reducing greenhouse gas emissions if we can practically. Why contribute to a problem. I just don't think that we can effect climate change on a global scale and if the Earth choses to warm for whatever reason we will not be able to stop it.
No one is claiming to have the final model explaining the temperature on earth. Nevertheless, the fact remains, we are outside the natural CO2 level. CO2 is a powerful greenhouse gas. There is a significant lag between the level of CO2 and the temperature on earth. Hence, if we don't do something now it might be late tomorrow. I wrote might, because, as you said, noone knows for sure. But are we really interested in playing dice with our own existence?
Sidenote: In science, the name of the game is getting publications. The sorry fact is that you don't get publications by singing with the choir. Since this debate is considered both important and urgent, it is easier to get a not-so well-founded-model published right now. I have seen crazy ideas published explaining the incrased temperature on earth as cow flatulence and rotting trees at bottoms of lakes (methane gas is also a potent greenhouse gas)
These publications makes it unfortunately even harder to sort out the real facts about this issue which very well might be the most important issue mankind has been faced with here on earth.
Absolute nonsense.
Global warming is a natural process and has happened many times over the lifespan of the earth. Sometimes it precedes an ice age sometimes it is ralated to internal changes within the earth core. It has occured in our past and it appears to be occuring now. The real reason for cooling and warming of the Earth are not well understood.
You are here talking about the natural oscillation of temperature (see my previuos post) geophysists often talk about which leads to an occasional ice age now then. There is a natural CO2 variation in the atmosphere which have been studied over extremely long periods by studying ice core samples from e.g. Greenland.
Every single well-founded theoretical model over natural CO2 variation model predicts we are outside the natural variation.
That is a fact.
We also know that CO2 is very potent greenhouse effect.
Thus we also know that the earth is getting warmer due to the increased CO2 level.
The increased CO2 level coincides with the industrilization when man began to burn fossile fuel in a historically unprecedented manner.
Mankind is causing the increased CO2 level. CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
This can of course not the explain the natural variation of temperature, but the fact remains our activities here in earth is causing an increased temperature.
Environmental scientists agree that man is causing global warming. All of their theories are based on models.
All scientific models are just theoretical models and can not be prove themselves. (see Gödel 1931)
But these models are designed trying to prove that man's production of greenhouse gas is the cause and they are way too simplified. We do not have enough information on all of the critical factors affecting climate change to build proper models.
In consequense of your argument and Gödel, it follows that we never can say anything about science. This is the same argument tobacco lobbyists have been using in defence of cigarettes.
Reality may be somewhere in between. However global warming has taken place on Venus and is currently taking place on Mars. Man obviously did not cause thes activities and it may or may not be related to the Earth's current episode of warming.
Again, you are talking about natural variations. But again, not a single theretical model predicts the current CO2 level to be natural variation.
I am not arguing with the idea of reducing greenhouse gas emissions if we can practically. Why contribute to a problem. I just don't think that we can effect climate change on a global scale and if the Earth choses to warm for whatever reason we will not be able to stop it.
No one is claiming to have the final model explaining the temperature on earth. Nevertheless, the fact remains, we are outside the natural CO2 level. CO2 is a powerful greenhouse gas. There is a significant lag between the level of CO2 and the temperature on earth. Hence, if we don't do something now it might be late tomorrow. I wrote might, because, as you said, noone knows for sure. But are we really interested in playing dice with our own existence?
Sidenote: In science, the name of the game is getting publications. The sorry fact is that you don't get publications by singing with the choir. Since this debate is considered both important and urgent, it is easier to get a not-so well-founded-model published right now. I have seen crazy ideas published explaining the incrased temperature on earth as cow flatulence and rotting trees at bottoms of lakes (methane gas is also a potent greenhouse gas)
These publications makes it unfortunately even harder to sort out the real facts about this issue which very well might be the most important issue mankind has been faced with here on earth.
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